The Terrance Group for Kirk Schuring (7/8-9, likely voters):
John Boccieri (D): 34
Kirk Schuring (R): 40
(MoE: ±4.9%)
You’re free to take this one with as many grains of salt as you’d like, but this is the first publicly-released poll of this race that I’m aware of.
Between the district’s Democratic trend, Schuring’s embarassing campaign trail gaffes, and Boccieri’s stronger fundraising pace in the first quarter, Democrats have a strong shot at picking off this open seat. I look forward to seeing the 2Q fundraising results for this race.
SSP currently rates this race as a “Tossup“.
This runs counter to every visible trend in the district. There also way too many undecideds.
This doesn’t suprise me that Kirk Schuring is leading in a Kirk Schuring internal poll.
That the Boccieri poll in response to this one will be coming in 3…2…1…
Ralph Regula won this district regularly, usually against weak opposition. In 2004, Regula won with 66.6%; in 2006 he was down to 59%. This shows an even smaller margin (six points translates about to Bush’s 2004 margin of 53.8%).
All the poll says is that in a nominally weak Republican district, the Republican starts with a small lead. Probably this lead is a bit less than the 6% (more like 3 or 4%). Schuring is just outside the margin of error.
Despite the ballyhoo, I always felt that this was no better than the fourth best pick up chance in Ohio behind OH-15, OH-2, and OH-1.
Has OH-16 as one of our top 5 pickup opportunities. I’ll predict Boccieri by a 10-15 point margin in the general.